The return

So...I'm back from New York. The Lion King was excellent. I had known going in that there was a lot of crazy costuming and all of that jazz, but what I didn't know was the amount of puppetry and stuff that was involved, as well. Good stuff! Other than that, it was pretty much a redux of the cartoon, but with some extra songs thrown in. Maybe some taken out...I don't really remember the cartoon that well. But anyway, it was a fine show. Momz and I got treated to a little backstage tour afterward, which was also quite cool. It's really exciting, the things my sister is involved with. I'm really just...well, proud, I guess, if that's the right word for it. She's done quite well for herself. Me...not so much. It's sort of weird, I guess, being the big brother and yet kind of being the fuckup. I mean, there's no reason she shouldn't do so well; I'm just holding the situation up against a dorky stereotype. But, yeah...she's doin' all right. Way to go.

The trip itself was largely uneventful. We took the bus (NJ Transit) so that came with the usual shenanigans and butt-killing seating and stuff, but that's fine. At least I got a seat; there wasn't enough room and some people had to stand for the trip. Suck. Coming back to New York to see a play is always a pretty different experience than coming back to, say, get soused at Johhny's and crash in someone's bathtub. For one thing, all the outdoor time was spent in the tourist crush at Times Square. That's unfun enough on its own, but also trying to navigate it while keeping pace with Momz is a new level of interesting. It was great to see my sister, though, and we (the three of us) grabbed some dinner and ate it in the lobby of the theater between shows, which meant we got to picnic while looking down onto Times Square and the whole accompanying ratrace. Neato. In any case, though, it was nice to set foot back in the City, even if it was limited to such a touristy run. I may have to rethink this whole South Jersey plan. ;)

In any case, that was it. Just wanted to record that the trip was made. I'll post my NFL hoo-hah for this week right after this, and then...well, do whatever I do to ride out the rest of the weekend. So it goes. See y'all around. Smell ya later!

NFL Week 9 Results

Well, here we have our first week of Mascot Fights losing money. I have to say, too...it really did make a difference in my football-watching experience, even with nothing tangible at stake. I keep an eye on the occasional score updates from other games while I watch a game on TV, and it was quite a different experience, seeing my picks all going down before my eyes. Anyway...most of the games I had bet seemed to be fairly close matchups, with two notable exceptions which both went as expected. If I allowed myself human intervention in this system, surely I would have stepped in and prevented some of this inbalance. It's just part of the wackiness with odds...

So take these examples. The system picked the Giants over the Texans which, to a human, was basically a no-brainer. To the oddsmakers, the moneyline for the Giants was -900, which meant I would risk $100 to win $11. Big whoop, right? So now consider the other game in which the system picked the Browns over the Chargers which, to a human, was mad retarded. To the oddsmakers, the moneyline for the Browns was +600, which meant I would risk $100 to win $600. Great odds. But still...almost a certainly losing bet. So look at those two together...it's almost a sure thing the Giants will win, it's almost a sure thing the Browns will lose, and so it's almost a sure thing that by betting both those teams, I'll end up losing $89. With human intervention, I could basically have just not bet either team and come out even instead. :) Hell, I could basically have just not bet the Giants...know what I mean? Giving up $11 wouldn't be a big deal, but giving up $600 if the Browns did win would be terrible. But anyway...it's all academic; I'm just doing this to see how the system fares in aggregate.

For those keeping track, I lost both OFF games this week, so that certainly saved me some money. Other than that, there just wasn't a lot of excitement from this week. No big upsets or anything; just bad picks. One thing, though...I started at looking at other NFL bets, just because I was getting a little bored of the moneylines. I would have taken the point total over on the Colts/Patriots game in a heartbeat...and I would have lost by like two points, those bastards. So I was considering maybe branching out into prop bets or something, too, just to keep things interesting, but...it's clear I don't know nearly enough to do so. :) One last quick thing, though...I'm going to start using LJ tags to organize this crap a little better. Sort of a sad way to start using tags in my blog, but hey. So anyway...here's how I fared last week:

( Details and results )

NFL Week 10 Picks

INTRODUCTION
You know...this whole experiment is getting less and less interesting, methinks. :) And I'm not just saying that because I lost money last week, either. ;) I remember when I was first dreaming this up, I was worried that I would end up with a set, linear ordering of teams that, once deciphered, would forever rank the mascots from worst fighter to best fighter. At the time, I figured it would just make the picking process boring once that happened. Now, though, I'm thinking that's not such a bad deal. :) I could have just done evaluations at the beginning of the season (or whatever), and then my weekly picks would be easy. As it is, though, I think a lot of analysis gets shortened by stuff that has gone on before, though, so...whatever. I'll still carry on with this process. Cuz, you know, when the going gets tough, the tough keep right on doing what they're doing without changing anything. Yeah. Onward!

( Week 10 Picks )

This one should be pretty interesting. This is the first time I've had such an unbalanced ratio of favorites to dogs (8 to 3), which certainly flies in the face of one of the other systems I was considering: always bet the underdog. :) (Also...a bunch of OFF games today. Gotta find out what that's about.) Still, after last week's debacle, maybe it's better to play some safe money for now. We shall see!

( Edit: One more pick )